Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.  

K200 ended slightly lower this short week (4 trading days), with a pause at last 2 trading days.

MACD are still heading down.  

Daily remains bearish, with a small probability of retracement up.

Weekly :Sideway.  Short-term Downtrend.

This week bar reflect the same pause as in daily.

MACD continues to head down and widening.  

Weekly remains bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.    Short-term Downtrend.

240 support is broken.  Next support 230.  This new month bar is bearish for now.  Until we get a positive sign, it is still short-term downtrend.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.  

• K200 ended slightly lower than previous low, in fact, lower than previous previous low 239.09 in January 2015.  These 239-240 has been a strong support area in the past 1.5-2 years.  We have a small pin bar on Friday.  Thus, the next bars are important to see if this level holds.
• MACD are still heading down.  

Weekly :Sideway.  Short-term Downtrend.

• This week bar is a bullish bar, resting just around the 239-240 support area.
• MACD continues to head down and widening.  
• Weekly remains bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.  

• 240 support is broken.  Next support 230.  This new month bar is bearish for now.  Until we get a positive sign, it is still short-term downtrend.  

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.  

• K200 ended slightly higher, still above 244, after a small retracement or short-term uptrend move.  A break below previous low of 241.49 will confirm its continuation of downtrend move.
• K200 is currently between 1st downtrend line and 2nd downtrend line.  Also, below its parallel projection of 1st downtrend line.  Unless strong indication of strength in retracement/recover, the bias is in the continuation of the current motion, downtrend move.
• Friday is a long pin bar, almost touching the previous low of 241.49.  This is bullish provided Monday support it.
• MACD are still heading down.  However, with the pin bar formed, if the next few days were up days, MACD may turn upwards, still validating the divergence.  

Weekly :Sideway.  Short-term Downtrend.

• This week bar is still a inside bar for the long bar 3 weeks ago.  There is no other sign different from last weeks.  It is still downtrend until positive sign is shown on the chart.
• MACD continues to head down and widening.  
• Weekly remains bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.  

• This month bar is bearish.  Short-term is downtrend continues.  Until we get a positive sign, it is still short-term downtrend.  Big picture is sideway.  The crucial support 240 and 230 will determine if we still have sideway market.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.  

• K200 ended its retracement or short-term uptrend move.  Lower High established.  We need to see if a Lower Low established to confirm and continue the downtrend move.
• K200 is back to the 1st downtrend line, into the downtrend channel.
• 244.0 could be a good support.
• MACD has crossed down again.   However, the down move momentum is losing strength as the histogram is getting smaller and the MACD line is getting higher.  The MACD divergence at the lowest might still be valid.

Weekly :Sideway.  Short-term Downtrend.

• K200 had a series of small lower high lower low.  Short-term downtrend continues.
• However, on a slightly bigger picture, it has a Higher High established around 275 and a Higher Low (potential) established at 241.49.  If that is the Higher Low, then we might have a uptrend move in the pipe line.
• On a big picture, it is similar to Monthly chart sideway market.
• MACD continues to head down and widening.
• Weekly remains bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.  Short-term Downtrend

• Short-term is downtrend.  Big picture is sideway.  The crucial support 240 and 230 will determine if we still have sideway market.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.  Short-term uptrend

• K200 is in a short-term uptrend or retracement.  Until it established a higher high, it is still in a Downtrend mode.
• MACD has broken up.  There is a divergent at the last low.  Need to watch closely if this retracement turn a downtrend into a uptrend.

Weekly :Downtrend.

• K200 did close above the high of the bullish pin bar.
• MACD is still heading down and continues widening.
• Weekly remains bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.

• In general, it is still sideway.  However, the current bar could turn into a bullish pin bar.  Let's see.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.

• The last short uptrend lasted just 2 weeks before K200 continues its downtrend move.
• K200 went back into the downtrend line and remain below it.
• 245 could be a good support.  The next strong support will be 240.
• MACD stars to flatten and may move up.

Weekly :Downtrend.

• K200 resumes its downtrend move ended but ended with a bullish pin bar.
• It went back to stay below MA200.
• MACD seems to start to widen again.

Monthly : Sideway.
With just ten days in into the month, it has already quite a bearish bar.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Uptrend.  Higher low higher high.

• In the past 5 trading days, K200 established a higher low and a higher high.  This starts the uptrend move.
• K200 broke out of the downtrend line and remain above on it.
• On a bigger picture, it could be just a retracement on the previous down move.
• MACD continues to move up.
• K200 just rest below MA200 (255.90).

Weekly : Sideway/Uptrend/Downtrend. Not clear.

• K200 ended this week with a another bullish bar, engulfing the previous bullish bar, with very small margin.  Direction is not clear.  I would say it is in a retracement until I see a clearer bullish sign.
• It continue to stay above MA200 and challenging MA50.
• MACD seems to start to make a turn.

Monthly : Sideway.

• K200 close the month with a not so clear pin bar.  The tail is not very long.  The bar didn't appear to be very bullish.  We need this month bar to tell us better if last month bar is the higher low.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.

• Lower high lower low.  K200 stop the down move and starts to retrace.  However, the retracement has not hit any higher high.  So, it is still in downtrend.
• K200 stop just below the downtrend line, which happen to be around Fibo 61.80% level, also happen to be below the resistance line of 254.68.
• MACD cross up in this week and heading up wide.  It is still below MA200.
• We will need to see if K200 break above the downtrend line next week, that will be bullish.  Or if it move down and it establish a higher low (means it might retrace up further), that will also be bullish.  Or it establish a lower low (means it continue its downtrend move), that will be bearish.

Weekly : Sideway/Uptrend/Downtrend.

• Weekly chart is not so conclusive.  On the very short term, it is downtrend, if you consider the last green bar (which is an inside bar) a few weeks ago as lower high, we do have lower high lower low.  
• However, if you look at a longer term, from the double bottom, K200 has establish a higher high (green arrow).  The recent pin bar is a higher low.  So, we have a higher high higher low, uptrend.  
• But, if you look at the whole chart, K200 has been moving between 230 to 272/275 since end 2012.  It is sideway.
• K200 ended this week with a bullish bar.  With the long pin bar last week, this development is bullish.
• It also move back up and stay above MA200.  It might test MA50, which is just slightly above it.
• MACD though is heading down, but has stopped opening wide.

Monthly : Sideway.

• K200 continue to move up above and close above the uptrend line.  The bearish bar last week has started to develop into a pin bar.  With 2 more trading days to move, this month bar might not be so bearish.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.

• Lower high lower low.  Ever since it fell below 250, it failed in the last few attempts to close above 250.  Weak.  However it stay above the longer term uptrend line.
• MACD is still heading down but narrowing.  Will it cross?  Or will it touch and widen again?  
• My view remain bearish.  However, the MERS case is under control now.  We could see some support or even some up move from here.

Weekly : Downtrend.

• Lower high lower low.  Price fell below MA200 and stay below.  Weak.  However, we have a long pin bar.  So, we might have some support here.  We need the next bar to confirm or reject it.
• MACD is heading down and open wide.  Weekly view is still bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.

• Price move down below the uptrend line and up back resting on it.  Still look bearish.  We have about 1.5 weeks to conclude this bar to see if it is a bearish bar or a pin bar.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.

• Lower high lower low.  Price failed to stay within the Jun 3rd bar and closed below the Fibo 61.80%.  The resistance turn support at 254.68 didn't hold.  It is heading towards the previous low near 250.
• MACD is still heading down but start to narrow.  My view is still bearish.  Any up move is probably just retracement.

Weekly : Downtrend.

• Lower high lower low.  Price just stay slightly above the bottom of the previous Inside bar range (260.68-251.43).  MA200 is around that level too.  That should provide some temporary support.
• MACD is heading down and open wide.  Weekly view is still bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.

• Price move down back to the middle of the range.  Both the current and previous bar look bearish.  We could see price move down to the lower of the range.

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  

• Lower high lower low.  MA200 failed to hold.  MACD heading down and widen.  
• June 4th & 5th bar are both inside bars of 3rd bar.  No direction.  Most of time, it will break in the direction of the trend, that is down.  
• It is near fibo 61.80% level.  And it just hold above the resistance turn support at 254.68.  This may provide some support, or even retrace for a while.  
• But my view is still bearish, unless the future chart shows a different view.

Weekly : Downtrend.

• Lower high lower low.  Uptrend line failed to hold.  Price slightly below MA50.  
• Back to the previous Inside bar range (260.68-251.43).  The 260.68 level has been a support for 4 weeks.  The bottom 251.43 should provide some support?  MA200 is around that level too.
• MACD is making a cross down.  Weekly view is bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.

• It is a obvious sideway market since October/November 2012.  That is sideway for 30 months.

Weekly Market Reivew K200

K200 closed at 258.33 on Friday, 26-Sep-2014, lost 3.98 (1.52%) over the last 5 trading days.

Looking at the bigger picture on daily chart, K220 continue going down while trying to go up.  And it established a lower high and a lower low.  It is now on downtrend.

Looking at the Weekly chart, K200 drop below the trend line and ended lower.  Unless we get a bullish bar and ended above the trend line, we might have weekly downtrend soon.

Att Monthly chart, K200 dip briefly below the uptrend line.  This is again bearish.  With another few days to go.  Let's see if it end below or above the uptrend line.

November Position : Iron Condor 242.5/245/280/282.5
I have closed the Call Spread 280/282.5 as it reached my target profit exit criteria.  Will update in separate post.

November Position, with only the Put Spread 242.5/245, is currently at a paper lost of about 0.03 points (KRW 15,000, before commission).  K200 is about 11 points away from the Short Put.  Delta is at 0.1309 for Short Put.  DTE is 47 days.  This position looks ok.  Just need to keep a close watch on the Delta.  

Trading Calendar
Friday Oct-3: KSE will be closed for trading

Weekly Market Reivew N225

N225 closed at 16,229.86 on Friday, 26-Sep-2014, lost 91.31 (0.56%) over the last 4 trading days. NKVI lost 0.03 (0.18%) ending the week at 16.66.

N225 managed to get back below the top Bollinger Band, but not much.  And the band has widen.  N225 has been grinding up since August 8 low.  This is no good for selling Iron Condor or even just Call/Put spread.  The low volatility didn't provide good premium.  In fact, I couldn't find a good premium to sell Put spread to form Iron Condor.  And, the Call spread is being challenged every time N225 edges up.  Should I consider buying option instead of just selling option?

Both the weekly and monthly chart continue to look bullish.  Not much has changed.  

November Position : Call Spread 17250/17500, 17375/17625
November 17250/17500 position is currently at a paper loss of about 8 points (JPY 8,000, before commission).  N225 is about 1020 points away from the Short Call.  Delta is at 0.1252.  DTE is 47 days.  This position looks ok.  Just need to keep a watch on the Delta movement.

November 17375/17625 position is currently at a paper gained of about 1 points (JPY 1,000, before commission).  N225 is about 1145 points away from the Short Call.  Delta is at 0.1030.  DTE is 47 days.  This position looks ok.  No action needed.