Sunday, April 6, 2014

Weekly Market Reivew N225

N225 has gained 367.74 (2.50%) over the last 5 days in a almost straight line up.  NKVI was almost flat at about 24 over the last 5 days.  This is not a good situation for Iron Condor seller.  As the underlying creep up slowly towards the Short Call strike price, it will be very difficult to adjust with such a low volatility.

Looking at the 6 months data, after breaking down from about 16320 in end December, N225 has been in the range of 14000-15320 in the past 2 months.  The break above 15320 will get it out of this range bound.

NKVI has been in the 20-30 range for past 6 months, with only spike above 30 in February when N225 went down to 14000.

SPX big drop of 23.68 points (1.25%) last Friday would likely bring N225 down on Monday open, bringing it back to the range.  Volatility might goes up a bit.

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