Saturday, September 6, 2014

Weekly Market Reivew N225

N225 closed at 15,668.68 on Friday, 5-Sep-2014, gained 244.09 (1.58%) over the last 5 trading days. NKVI gained 1.72 (10.79%) ending the week at 17.66.

Last week, NKVI dropped with the drop of N225.  This week NKVI gained with the rise of N225.  This is unusual.  NKVI should be inversely correlated to N225.  However, this might not be really alarming as the movement in these two weeks were small (100-250 points).

Last week, I also mention that the range has expanded to 15,000-15,700 range. I could have underestimated the upper range.  I think it is at least 15,800.  Or 16,000 if N225 push higher next week.  After all, N225 is still on uptrend on daily chart.  However, N225 is at the upper end of the Bollinger Band.  It could retrace lower before it move higher.  Let's see.

Nothing much has change on the weekly/monthly chart, N225 is still on an uptrend.

October Position: Call Spread 16500/16750
October Position has a paper loss of about 3 points (JPY 3,000, before commission).  N225 is about 830 points away from the Short Call.  Delta is at 0.1045.  DTE (Days To Expiration) is 33 days.  This position does not looks too good (obviously since it is at a paper loss now).  However, Delta is still healthy at 0.1045.  It does not call for any adjustment, yet.  Will start to plan for next action if Delta move closer to 0.2.

If N225 remains about the same for the next week, the time value decay (Theta) will bring the position to break even.  Of course, this is just theoretical and hypothetical.  In reality, N225 will move up or down, so is Delta, Gamma, Vega and IV.

November PositionCall Spread 17250/17500
November Position is currently at a paper gain of about 2 points (JPY 2,000, before commission).  N225 is about 1580 points away from the Short Call.  Delta is at 0.0727.  DTE is 68 days.  This position looks good.  No action required.  Probably will look for opportunity to add the Put Spread leg to form an Iron Condor.

No comments:

Post a Comment