Weekly Market Reivew N225

N225 closed at 14,457.51 on Friday, 2-May-2014, gained 28.25 (0.20%) over the last 5 days.  NKVI moved down to 20.49 on Friday, the lowest for the past 6 months.

In last two weeks review, I mentioned if we have a lower high, we may end with a lower low breaking the past low of 13750 or/and 13180.  Howerver, N225 has been moving in a tight range (+/- 100 pts) ever since it move to 14417 on 16-Apr-2014 from the last low of 13910 on 14-Apr-2014.

Stock markets move up and down daily.  It is rarely that they stay in a tight range for too long.  I believe it will move out of this tight range soon.

NKVI at 20.49 is the lowest for the past 12 months, except on 18-Oct-2013 with a low of 19.99.  Such a low volatility is unusual.  Thus, this support the view that the breakout of the tight range will happen soon.  I think the breakout would likely to be on the down side.  Monday and Tuesday (5-6 May 2014) are Japan public holidays.  Let's see what the market is after that.  

SPX close at 1881.14, a drop of 2.54 (0.13%) on Friday, failed to break the high at 1897.28.  Does that imply weakness or at least lack of strength?