Saturday, August 9, 2014

Weekly Market Reivew N225

N225 closed at 14,778.37 on Friday, 8-Aug-2014, lost 744.74 (4.80%) over the last 5 trading days.  NKVI gained 6.46 (38.48%) ending the week at 23.25.

N225 not only failed to hold 15,500, it fall through the 15,000, all within 5 trading days.  The single day drop on Friday is a whopping 454 points, close to 3% (2.98%).  This could be a simple knee jerk reaction to the geopolitical uncertainty.  Or could it be more, something else?

Looking at the bigger picture on daily chart, this week drop definitely gives a pause/stop to N225 past weeks uptrend move.  We have a clear lower low.  If we get a lower high, especially below 15,000, we might simply have a trend change, at least short term.  And there is nothing in between till the next round number support at 14,000.  Let's see.

In last week post, I mentioned about the long pin bar could be a false break.  My concern seems valid.  This week long red bar break through the 15,500 - 15000 range decisively.  If it continues its downward move, we are looking at 13,900-14,000 range for support.

NKVI gained a whopping 38.48% gain for the past week.  This put NKVI back to mid twenties.  And this stops (at least temporary) my concern/worry of the repeat of end 2012 long rally.

It seems that mean reverting for volatility is working.  We are back to the 20-30 range for 5 year chart.

SPX closed at 1931.59, up 22.02 points on Friday, despite a big sell off in Asian stock.  This should at least give a pause/stop to the big decline for N225 when it opens on Monday.

No comments:

Post a Comment