Tuesday, March 18, 2014

A Good Trade That Went Wrong?

Is this a good trade that went wrong?

Day 1: 12-Mar-2014 N225 : 14853 (-370 or -2.43%)

I have been waiting for this big drop (>2% drop) for many days/weeks.  Implied Volatility (IV) has shot up (somehow I didn't capture all the IV.  will need to find out where else I can get it).  I immediately sold a Iron Condor with good credit of 40 points.


Implied Volatility :
Iron Condor (40 credit : JPY 400,000, ROM 53%)
10 N225 16000/16250 Bear Call Spread (Delta 11.43/7.23) : 20
10 N225 13500/13250 Bull Put Spread (Delta 12.80/9.47) : 20


Day 2: 13-Mar-2014 N225 : 14816 (-13.74 or -0.09%)


Implied Volatility :
Iron Condor (46 credit) : Loss of 6 pt (JPY 60,000)
10 N225 16000/16250 Bear Call Spread (Delta 10.89/6.85) : 23
10 N225 13500/13250 Bull Put Spread (Delta 11.65/8.51) : 23



Day 3: 13-Mar-2014 N225 : 14327.18 (-488.80 or -3.30%)


Implied Volatility :
Iron Condor (53 credit) : Loss of 13 pt (JPY 130,000)
10 N225 16000/16250 Bear Call Spread (Delta 4.53/2.80) : 8
10 N225 13500/13250 Bull Put Spread (Delta 24.94/19.16) : 45

The drop of 488.80 points (or 3.30%) is making this Iron Condor very uncomfortable.  Delta is almost 25, which is my adjustment trigger point (Don't let Deltas go over 25 to 30).  And N225 is only 827 points away from the Short Put Strike of 13500.


Day 4: 17-Mar-2014 N225 : 14277.52 (-50.14 or -0.35%)


Implied Volatility :
Iron Condor (48 credit) : Loss of 8 pt (JPY 80,000)
10 N225 16000/16250 Bear Call Spread (Delta 3.97/2.49) : 8
10 N225 13500/13250 Bull Put Spread (Delta 24.65/18.20) : 40

I decided to adjust : taking the 8pt loss and open a new Iron Condor.

Iron Condor (34 credit : JPY 340,000, ROM 45%)
10 N225 15500/15750 Bear Call Spread (Delta 10.18/6.44) : 17
10 N225 12750/12500 Bull Put Spread (Delta 10.02/7.38) : 17

Day 5: 18-Mar-2014 N225 : 14409.43 (+131.76 or 0.92%)


Did I adjust too early?




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