Daily Action Plan

Friday, 31 July 2015
K200 closed at 243.61 -2.36 (-0.96%) on Jul30, IV was 13.1340%.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 14 days
- Delta 9.81
- Profit 33%
- 8.61 points away
- Action : Take Profit before DTE < 14 

2. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 42 days
- Delta 26.71 (2 points down move will hit above Delta 30)
- Loss 125% (2 points down move might hit > 200%)
- 237.5/235 Put bid/ask 1.88/1.95 (2 points down move might  hit > 3.00)
- 6.11 points away
- 241.49 (last low) is the next support but only 3.99 points away.  Too close. Then 240 or next previous low (239.09)
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 237.5 Put.  Cut loss if Delta > 30, Loss > 200%, before 237.5 put get close to 3.00.

3. September position
- DTE 42 days
- 1SD (256.57/230.65)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Thursday, 30 July 2015
K200 closed at 245.97 +0.76 (+0.31%) on Jul29.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 15 days
- Delta 6.97
- Profit 50%
- 10.97 points away
- Action : Take Profit before DTE < 14 

2. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 43 days
- Delta 21.76
- Loss 68% 
- 237.5/235 Put bid/ask 1.55/1.61
- 8.47 points away
- 244 is the immediate support, 241.49 (last low) is the next support, then 240 or next previous low (239.09)
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 237.5 Put.  Do not let the price of 237.5 Call get close to 3.00. 

3. September position
- DTE 43 days
- 1SD (259.03/232.91)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Tuesday, 29 July 2015
K200 closed at 245.21 +0.23 (+0.09%) on Jul28.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 16 days
- Delta 8.24
- Profit 33%
- 10.21 points away
- Action : Take Profit before DTE < 14 

2. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 44 days
- Delta 23.07 (3 points down move will hit above Delta 30)
- Loss 112% (3 points down move might hit > 200%)
- 237.5/235 Put bid/ask 1.88/1.94 (3 points down move might  hit > 3.00)
- 7.71 points away
- 244 is the immediate support, 241.49 (last low) is the next support, then 240 or next previous low (239.09)
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 237.5 Put.  Do not let the price of 237.5 Call get close to 3.00.  3 points up move will hit Delta but not Loss% and DTE guideline.  Cut loss or not?  To roll or not?

3. September position
- DTE 44 days
- 1SD (258.66/231.76)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Tuesday, 28 July 2015
K200 closed at 244.98 +0.07 (+0.03%) on Jul27.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 17 days
- Delta 9.50
- Profit 33%
- 9.98 points away
- Action : Take Profit before DTE < 14 

2. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 45 days
- Delta 23.47 (3 points down move will hit above Delta 30)
- Loss 103% (3 points down move might hit > 200%)
- 237.5/235 Put bid/ask 1.90/1.92 (3 points down move might  hit > 3.00)
- 7.48 points away
- 244 is the immediate support, 241.49 (last low) is the next support, then 240 or next previous low (239.09)
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 237.5 Put.  Do not let the price of 237.5 Call get close to 3.00.  3 points up move will hit Delta but not Loss% and DTE guideline.  Cut loss or not?  To roll or not?

3. September position
- DTE 45 days
- 1SD (258.27/231.69)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Monday, 27 July 2015
K200 closed at 244.91 -2.40 (-0.97%) on Jul24.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 18 days
- Delta 10.44
- Profit 20%
- Profit SGD 1,300
- 9.91 points away
- Action : Take Profit before DTE < 14 

2. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 46 days
- Delta 25.55 (2 points down move will hit above Delta 30)
- Loss 108% (2 points down move might hit > 200%)
- 237.5/235 Put bid/ask 1.93/2.17 (2 points down move might  hit > 3.00)
- 7.41 points away
- 244 is the immediate support, 241.49 (last low) is the next support, then 240 or next previous low (239.09)
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 237.5 Put.  Do not let the price of 237.5 Call get close to 3.00.  2 points up move will hit Delta but not Loss% and DTE guideline.  Cut loss or not?  To roll or not?

3. September position
- DTE 46 days
- 1SD ( 257.88/231.94  )
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.  

• K200 ended its retracement or short-term uptrend move.  Lower High established.  We need to see if a Lower Low established to confirm and continue the downtrend move.
• K200 is back to the 1st downtrend line, into the downtrend channel.
• 244.0 could be a good support.
• MACD has crossed down again.   However, the down move momentum is losing strength as the histogram is getting smaller and the MACD line is getting higher.  The MACD divergence at the lowest might still be valid.

Weekly :Sideway.  Short-term Downtrend.

• K200 had a series of small lower high lower low.  Short-term downtrend continues.
• However, on a slightly bigger picture, it has a Higher High established around 275 and a Higher Low (potential) established at 241.49.  If that is the Higher Low, then we might have a uptrend move in the pipe line.
• On a big picture, it is similar to Monthly chart sideway market.
• MACD continues to head down and widening.
• Weekly remains bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.  Short-term Downtrend

• Short-term is downtrend.  Big picture is sideway.  The crucial support 240 and 230 will determine if we still have sideway market.

Daily Action Plan

Friday, 24 July 2015
K200 closed at 247.31 -0.57 (-0.23%) on Jul23.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 21 days
- Delta 6.78
- Profit 55%
- 12.31 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 22 days
- Delta 8.11
- Profit 53%
- 10.19 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

3. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 49 days
- Delta 19.78
- Loss 94%
- 9.81 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

4. September position
- DTE 49 days
- 1SD (260.78/233.84)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Thursday, 23 July 2015
K200 closed at 247.88 -2.47 (-0.99%) on Jul22.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 22 days
- Delta 6.17
- Profit 51%
- 12.88 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 22 days
- Delta 9.88
- Profit 45%
- 9.62 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

3. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 50 days
- Delta 18.16
- Loss 98%
- 10.38 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

4. September position
- DTE 50 days
- 1SD (261.82/233.94)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Wednesday, 22 July 2015
K200 closed at 250.35 +1.44 (+0.58%) on Jul21.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 23 days
- Delta 5.14
- Profit 60%
- 15.35 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 23 days
- Delta 15.59
- Loss 9%
- 7.15 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

3. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 51 days
- Delta 15.78
- Loss 17%
- 12.85 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

4. September position
- DTE 51 days
- 1SD (264.19/236.51)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Tuesday, 21 July 2015
K200 closed at 248.91 -1.32 (-0.53%) on Jul20.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 24 days
- Delta 6.34
- Profit 56%
- 13.91 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 25 days
- Delta 14.41
- Profit 4%
- 8.59 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

3. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 52 days
- Delta 16.89
- Loss 13%
- 11.41 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

4. September position
- DTE 52 days
- 1SD (262.88/234.94)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Monday, 20 July 2015
K200 closed at 250.23 -1.24 (-0.49%) on Jul17.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 25 days
- Delta 6.09
- Profit 56%
- 15.23 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 25 days
- Delta 17.76 (2 points up move will hit above Delta 25)
- Loss 25% (2 points down move might not, hit > 200%)
- 257.5 Call bid/ask 0.65/0.66
- 6.03 points away
- 255 should be a good support but that is only 2.5 points away.
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 257.5 Call.  Do not let the price of 257.5 Call get close to 3.00.

3. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 53 days
- Delta 15.69
- Loss 13%
- 12.73 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

4. September position
- DTE 53 days
- 1SD (264.36/236.10)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.  Short-term uptrend

• K200 is in a short-term uptrend or retracement.  Until it established a higher high, it is still in a Downtrend mode.
• MACD has broken up.  There is a divergent at the last low.  Need to watch closely if this retracement turn a downtrend into a uptrend.

Weekly :Downtrend.

• K200 did close above the high of the bullish pin bar.
• MACD is still heading down and continues widening.
• Weekly remains bearish.

Monthly : Sideway.

• In general, it is still sideway.  However, the current bar could turn into a bullish pin bar.  Let's see.

Daily Action Plan

Friday, 17 July 2015
K200 closed at 251.47 +1.82 (+0.73%) on Jul16.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 28 days
- Delta 5.10
- Profit 65%
- 16.47 points away
- Action : Take Profit when Profit% > 70% and DTE <30 and Delta <= 5.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 28 days
- Delta 22.53 (2 points up move will hit above Delta 30)
- Loss 71% (2 points down move might not, hit > 200%)
- 257.5 Call bid/ask 0.92/0.94
- 6.03 points away
- 255 should be a good support but that is only 2.5 points away.
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 257.5 Call.  Do not let the price of 257.5 Call get close to 3.00.
2 point up move will hit Delta but not Loss% guideline.  Cut loss or not?  

3. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 56 days
- Delta 13.96
- Loss 17%
- 13.97 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

4. September position
- DTE 56 days
- 1SD (265.60/237.34)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Thursday, 16 July 2015
K200 closed at 249.65 -1.01 (+0.41%) on Jul15.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 29 days
- Delta 8.18
- Profit 25%
- 14.65 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 29 days
- Delta 17.92 (3 points up move will hit above Delta 25)
- Loss 34% (3 points down move might not, hit > 200%)
- 7.85 points away
- 250 is the next support (too close), then 255 support but that is only 2.5 points away.
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

3. September 237.5/235 Put Spread
- DTE 57 days
- Delta 17.65 (3 points up move will hit above Delta 25)
- Loss 47% (3 points down move might not, hit > 200%)
- 12.15 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

4. September position
- DTE 57 days
- 1SD (265.71/233.59)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Wednesday, 15 July 2015
K200 closed at 248.64 -1.20 (-0.48%) on Jul14.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 30 days
- Delta 10.49
- Profit 25%
- 13.64 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 30 days
- Delta 17.12 (3 points up move will hit above Delta 25)
- Loss 34% (3 points down move might not, hit > 200%)
- 8.86 points away
- 250 is the next support (too close), then 255 support but that is only 2.5 points away.
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

3. September position
- DTE 59 days
- 1SD (265.12/230.98)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Tuesday, 14 July 2015
K200 closed at 249.84 +3.01 (+1.22%) on Jul13.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 31 days
- Delta 10.75
- Profit 5%
- 14.84 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread (45 contracts)
- DTE 31 days
- Delta 21.19 (2 points up move will hit above Delta 25; 3 points up move will hit above Delta 30, <5 points away)
- Loss 71% (3 points down move might not, hit > 200%)
- 7.66 points away
- 250 is the next support (too close), then 255 support but that is only 2.5 points away.
- Action : Monitor closely on the Delta, Loss% and the price of 257.5 Call.  Do not let the price of 257.5 Call get close to 3.00.

3. September position
- DTE 59 days
- 1SD (265.12/230.98)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Monday, 13 July 2015
K200 closed at 246.83 +0.063 (+0.02%) on Jul10.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 32 days
- Delta 15.75
- Loss 30%
- 11.83 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 32 days
- Delta 16.86
- Loss 79%
- 10.67 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

3. August 230/227.5 Put Spread
- DTE 32 days
- Delta 9.25
- Profit 24%
- Action : Take Profit when Profit >50% and Days In Trade (DIT) is =< 5.

4. September position
- DTE 60 days
- 1SD (265.12/230.98)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Downtrend.  Lower High Lower Low.

• The last short uptrend lasted just 2 weeks before K200 continues its downtrend move.
• K200 went back into the downtrend line and remain below it.
• 245 could be a good support.  The next strong support will be 240.
• MACD stars to flatten and may move up.

Weekly :Downtrend.

• K200 resumes its downtrend move ended but ended with a bullish pin bar.
• It went back to stay below MA200.
• MACD seems to start to widen again.

Monthly : Sideway.
With just ten days in into the month, it has already quite a bearish bar.

Daily Action Plan

Friday, 10 July 2015
K200 closed at 246.77 +1.83 (+0.75%) on Jul09.

1. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
- DTE 35 days
- Delta 16.46
- Loss 30%
- 11.77 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

2. August 257.5/260 Call Spread
- DTE 35 days
- Delta 15.44
- Loss 74%
- 10.73 points away
- Action : No action required if K200 stay within +/- 2 points.

3. August 230/227.5 Put Spread
- DTE 35 days
- Delta 9.39
- Profit 26%
- Action : Take Profit when Profit >50% and Days In Trade (DIT) is less than 5.

4. September position
- DTE 63 days
- 1SD (265.12/230.98)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Thursday, 09 July 2015
K200 closed at 244.94 -3.11 (-1.25%) on Jul08.

1. August 240/237.5 Put Spread
- DTE 36 days
- Delta 32.06 (Hit above Delta 30)
- Loss 207% (hit > 200%)
- 4.94 points away
- 244 could be the next support though not strong, then 240 support but that is the strike price!
- Action : Delta and Loss guideline hit but not DTE.  Cut loss first!  To roll or not?  May open entry at 230, with DTE 36 (failed my minimum DTE=42 requirement).

2. August 262.5/265 Call Spread
Unrealized profit/loss : 65%
Delta : 5.26
- Action : take profit when target profit 70% hit.  To roll or not?  May open entry 260/262.5 Call Spread, with DTE 36 to hedge Put Spread 240/237.5

3. September position
- DTE 64 days
- 1SD (265.12/230.98)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Monday, 08 July 2015
K200 closed at 248.05 -0.25 (-0.10%) on Jul07.

1. August 240/237.5 Put Spread
- DTE 37 days
- Delta 22.99 (2 points down move might hit above Delta 30, ~6 points away)
- Loss 97% (2 points down move might not, hit > 200%)
- 8.05 points away
- 246 is the immediate support (the previous low 246.42, long uptrend line), 244 could be the next support though not strong, then 240 support but that is the strike price!
- Action : 2 points down move might hit Delta guideline but not DTE.  Cut loss or not?  To roll or not?  To roll up will mean enter position with DTE 37 (failed my minimum DTE=42 requirement). 

2. September position
- DTE 65 days
- 1SD (265.12/230.98)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

NSE Nifty Option Review

I just found out in a seminar that NSE Nifty Option has the highest volume in the world.  I was so excited as that is the last exchange in Asia Pacific available for trading Options in Interactive Broker (IB).

The Option Spec in NSE wasn't structure in the same 'standard' way as other Option Spec. (http://www.nseindia.com/products/content/derivatives/equities/contract_specifitns.htmhttp://www.nseindia.com/products/content/derivatives/equities/contract_specifitns.htm)

I decided to come back to review Option Spec later and just try to setup some charts, Option Chain to see the bid/ask spead and to test some execution.  I immediately get the pop screen:

Chat up with IB customer support, I was told that:

 "Currently as per Indian regulations only India residents, Non Resident Indians (NRIs) and Companies registered in India are allowed to trade on India markets"

That ended the review on the last exchange in Asia Pacific for trading Options via IB.

Daily Action Plan

Monday, 07 July 2015
K200 closed at 248.30 -6.36 (-2.50%) on Jul06.  Due to the Greece "No" vote to referendum.

1. August 262.5/265 Call Spread
- DTE 38 days
- Delta 10.55
- Action : What a day can make a vulnerable position to become safe.  No action required.

2. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
Unrealized profit/loss : -11%
Delta : 14.56
- Action : What a day can make a profitable position become loss (small).  No action required.

3. August 240/237.5 Put Spread
- DTE 38 days
- Delta 23.22 (2 points down move will hit above Delta 30, ~6 points away)
- Loss 111% (2 points down move might, probably not, hit > 200%)
- 8.30 points away
- 246 is the immediate support (the previous low 246.42, the long uptrend line), 244 could be the next support though not strong, then 240 support but that is the strike price!
- Action : 2 points down move will hit both Delta and Loss% (maybe not) guideline but not DTE.  Cut loss or not?  To roll or not?  To roll up will mean enter position with DTE 38 (failed my minimum DTE=42 requirement).  

4. September position
- DTE 66 days
- 1SD (266.85/229.75)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Monday, 06 July 2015
With the "NO" vote from Greece referendum, today's market may be very volatile.  I might look for opportunity to sell option with the fear/volatility in the market than to buy/close on panic.
With the expectation/fear on more downside than upside in the equity market, the focus will be more on selling September options than to take action on the August position.  After all, if it is a down move, no action required on the August position.

K200 closed at 254.66 -0.84 (-0.33%) on Jul03.
1. August 262.5/265 Call Spread
- DTE 39 days
- Delta 24.5 (2 points up move will hit above Delta 30, <6 points away)
- Loss 130% (2 points up move will probably hit > 200%)
- 7.84 points away
- 256 (MA200 at 255.92) could be a resistance but not that strong, the stronger resistance is at 260 (Fibo 38.20%) is just 2.5 points away.  That is too close for comfort
- Action : 2 points up move will hit both Delta and Loss% guideline but not DTE.  Cut loss or not?  To roll or not?  To roll up will mean enter position with DTE 39 (failed my minimum DTE=42 requirement).

2. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
Unrealized profit : 51%
Delta :6.78
- Action : take profit when target profit 70% hit

3. September position
- DTE 67 days
- 1SD (272.03/237.29)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Weekly Market Review K200

Daily : Uptrend.  Higher low higher high.

• In the past 5 trading days, K200 established a higher low and a higher high.  This starts the uptrend move.
• K200 broke out of the downtrend line and remain above on it.
• On a bigger picture, it could be just a retracement on the previous down move.
• MACD continues to move up.
• K200 just rest below MA200 (255.90).

Weekly : Sideway/Uptrend/Downtrend. Not clear.

• K200 ended this week with a another bullish bar, engulfing the previous bullish bar, with very small margin.  Direction is not clear.  I would say it is in a retracement until I see a clearer bullish sign.
• It continue to stay above MA200 and challenging MA50.
• MACD seems to start to make a turn.

Monthly : Sideway.

• K200 close the month with a not so clear pin bar.  The tail is not very long.  The bar didn't appear to be very bullish.  We need this month bar to tell us better if last month bar is the higher low.

Daily Action Plan

Friday, 03 July 2015
K200 closed at 255.50 +0.43 (+0.17%) on Jul02.
1. August 262.5/265 Call Spread
- DTE 42 days
- Delta 26.7 (1 points up move will hit above Delta 30, <6 points away)
- Loss 131% (2 points up move will probably hit > 200%)
- 7 points away
- 256 (MA200 at 255.92) could be a resistance but not that strong, the stronger resistance is at 260 (Fibo 38.20%) is just 2.5 points away.  That is too close for comfort
- Action : 1 point up move will hit Delta but not Loss% guideline.  Cut loss or not?  2 points up move will hit both Delta and Loss% guideline but not DTE.  Cut loss or not?  To roll or not?  To roll up will mean enter position with DTE 42 (met my minimum DTE requirement).  

2. August 235/232.5 Put Spread
Unrealized profit : 63%
Delta : 5.75
- Action : take profit when target profit 70% hit or Delta <= 5

3. September position

- DTE 70 days

- 1SD (272.85/238.15)

- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met

Daily Action Plan

Thursday, 02 July 2015
K200 closed at 255.07 +2.80 (+1.11%) on Jul01.
1. August 262.5/265 Call Spread
- DTE 43 days
- Delta 25.8 (2 points up move will hit above Delta 30, 5 points away)
- Loss 161% (2 points up move will probably hit > 200%)
- 7.43 points away
- 256 could be a resistance but not that strong, the stronger resistance is at 260 (2.5 points away) but that is too close for comfort
- Action : cut loss or not?  it will hit Delta and Loss guidelines but not DTE.  To roll up will mean enter position with DTE 43 (met my minimum DTE requirement).

2. September position
- DTE 71 days
- 1SD (272.24/237.90)
- Action : accumulate if Entry guidelines met